UK Housing Market
Halifax predicts modest growth in house prices, estimating increases of between 0% and 3% over the year. Nationwide is slightly more optimistic, projecting a 4% rise in house prices throughout 2025.
If we look to the larger estate agents in the UK Savills predicts a 4% growth in 2025 and knight franks has surprisingly cut its prediction by 2.5% and feels the Uk market could be slow in 2025.
Meanwhile, Rightmove describes the current market as “remarkable & resilient” According to their analysis, there’s been a 1.7% decrease in new seller asking prices, reflecting year-on-year December 23-24 They also anticipate house prices to rise by 4% this year, aligning with Nationwide’s forecast.
Rightmove has reported a 22% increase in sales, indicating renewed buyer confidence and the opening up of the market from the budget backlog. In addition, there has been a 13% rise in new property listings, signaling market activity as sellers feel more secure entering the market.
Similarly, RICS has noted a steady increase in new property listings during the final quarter of 2024, further supporting the narrative of a more active and balanced market in the UK.
The data out there shows that in 2024 the North West saw an increase in house prices and is performing as one of the top regions in the UK. Some northern areas have seen a 5% increase in prices over the past year.
If mortgage rates drop, along with the Bank of England base rate, then we should see a further increase in house prices in 2025.
Lake District And Cumbria
When we look at Cumbria and the Lake District, they perform very differently from other parts of the UK, mainly due to the amount of holiday lets and second homes in the area. If we look at the data on specific areas within Cumbria, we can see, for example, that over the last six months, the average house price reduction was:
- The average asking price of properties in Penrith has dropped by 2.3%.
- Keswick: 2.5% decrease.
- Windermere: 2.2% decrease.
- Ambleside: 2.1% decrease.
These are average decreases in asking prices, according to data from the Land Registry. In the grand scheme of things, these are relatively small decreases and if we look at the political world surrounding the dates, it would be expected to see this, because we are an affluent area where the potential changes to personal financial decisions were threatened for a short time.
My advice to buyers is that you must look at each property individually—there is no “one size fits all.” Houses in Cumbria are all very different, and there are no direct comparables for prime properties. Strategy and planning are key, and working with our clients on their strategy is where we excel. We speak to many estate agents and are given a heads-up on the homes where sellers are significantly motivated and we are made aware of potential opportunities becoming available.
Market Observations
Having recently chatted with a local surveyor in the area, the feeling is that January seems like a slower market for sales agreed. Many estate agents are incredibly busy with valuations and preparing homes for the market, however, many Central Lakes agents agree that the holiday let market has significantly slowed down, whereas there is momentum in the residential sales market. Locations outside of the National Park seem to have a lot of interest, however, discretionary purchases have slowed down, and the majority of agents I have spoken to echo this. This aligns with my observations, and I believe 2025 will be a more seasonal market. It is great to hear that agents are busy and hopefully, we should see new homes coming to market over the coming months.
Remarketed Homes
Over the last 12 months we have seen an increase in homes coming back to market, these homes offer motivated and realistic owners, and can offer buyers an opportunity whilst you may have ruled them out the first time, sometimes it is worth paying attention to these homes and revisiting them.
Stamp Duty
Realistically if you are hoping to beat the stamp duty raise you are very unlikely to get this through in time, whilst there has been a lot in the media about the increase, realistically buyers are negotiating with sellers and taking this increase into account, in the grand scheme of things the increase is usually taken into consideration at the negotiating stage, I personally don’t feel the higher end of the market will be too impacted at this stage in the year.
Strategy and planning is key to securing the right house in the right location, resale needs to be considered for those looking to move again in the next 5 years, If you are thinking of relocating to The Lake District or Cumbria I would love to hear from you.